ltv cac cohort modeling
Build a defensible LTV/CAC model with cohort-aware assumptions for a DTC brand. Produces cohort LTV at 30/60/90/180/365 days, blended + by-channel CAC, payback months, three scenario projections (optimistic / realistic / pessimistic), and explicit kill-rules for unprofitable channel scale-up. Use before scaling a paid channel, before a fundraising deck, or when finance asks "what's our LTV?" and you want to give the real answer.
WHAT THIS SKILL PRODUCES — REAL SCENARIO
Skincare brand wants to 3x Meta spend from $80K to $240K/mo. Skill ingests 9 months of Shopify orders + Meta + Google + Klaviyo spend, computes LTV90 by acquisition cohort + channel ($72 Meta vs $94 Google nonbrand vs $138 referral), payback (Meta 4.1 months at current AOV $48 / 32% gross margin), and projects scenarios. Realistic case: scaling Meta past $160K hits CAC ceiling at $42 → LTV90:CAC drops below 1.7 → kill rule triggers. Recommendation: scale Meta to $140K, redirect $80K to Google nonbrand (better LTV90:CAC) — not all $160K to Meta.
STRUCTURE — 8 SECTIONS
this is the actual section map of the skill file. content of each section is the part you pay for.
- 01when to invoke
- 02brand brain context required
- 03inputs from user
- 04process
- 05output template
- 06output checklist
- 07anti-patterns
- 08edge cases
WHAT YOU GET
- ▸full 189-line SKILL.md
- ▸frontmatter contract for agent harnesses
- ▸step-by-step process + decision rules
- ▸output format spec + edge cases
- ▸commercial license — perpetual, modify privately
- ▸all v1.x updates
BRAND BRAIN FIELDS REQUIRED
THE LIBRARY — BEST MATH
$99
this skill + every other skill in the catalog. break-even at six. one klaviyo flow rebuild at agency rates pays for the whole library.
JUST THIS SKILL
one file, $19. you can always upgrade to the library later.